Wednesday, 16 December 2015

Probability

It is almost my birthday – less than an hour away. It seems to come around so quickly nowadays. Perhaps that is a sign of advancing years: once, each birthday was a major advance on what had gone before, but now there is the feeling of things having plateaued a long time ago. Which is not the most inspiring thought: you rather hope that you still have many more years ahead of you, but you would prefer to be soaring to new heights rather than simply staying put, twiddling your metaphorical thumbs. Perhaps I need to be more proactive: go out and make things happen, rather than sit back and wait for them to walk up to me, grab me by the arm and drag me to a better place.

But that, I'm afraid to say, is pretty much the story of my life. I pride myself on taking a long-term view of things, but unfortunately this usually equates to the principle that something useful will turn up quite by chance, just as long as you wait long enough. On the other hand, you instinctively know that some outcomes, like winning the lottery, are so rare that you have to wait a very long time indeed; particularly if you never actually buy a ticket.

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