Thursday, 23 June 2016

Referendum

– Well. Here we are. The polls have closed. Nothing to do now but wait.
– It's nearly time for bed.
– How can you think about sleeping on such a historic night? The future of the UK is on a knife-edge. A fundamental change to the way in which this country will be governed, most likely for the rest of our lifetimes. In the short term, a potentially devastating blow to our already shaky economy.
– What time will the result be out?
– Goodness knows. The early hours of the morning will see the first slew of declarations. But the final result will probably take till tomorrow morning.
– I'm not sure I can face sitting up all night. What is there to do?
– We can watch the engaging political discussion on the all-night news broadcasts.
– But they have no results to discuss at the moment.
– I don't see why that should be a problem. Politicians are never short of strongly held opinions, and seldom need to be asked twice to express them.
– The opinion polls have been worryingly variable.
– Yes. They have never settled over all these months. Always 50-50, plus or minus a few percent. Presumably that reflects the typical noise of any opinion poll.
– Makes you realise how difficult it is to predict these things.
– Precedent always helps. Maybe they'll learn something from this referendum to help them with the next one.
– I'm not sure I can face another referendum if this is what they are like. You feel it has opened up deep rifts among the voters, has fuelled some serious animosity.
– I fear there is an element of opening up a Pandora's box: resentment and bitterness are unlikely to vanish overnight whichever way the vote goes. If we decide on Leave, there will be many years of political wrangling and economic turmoil until our exit from the EU is finalised. If Remain comes out on top, we then have to make a success of repairing our relationship with the EU, as waves of Eurosceptism sweep over the rest of Europe. And who knows what the fall-out will be in terms of the Prime Minister's reputation and the cohesion of the Conservative party? Will we stumble towards an early General Election?
– Not much to look forward to, really.
– No, not much.

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